A view from Cowdenbeath: Scotland’s political tipping point is coming

SO NOW THE DUST HAS SETTLED on the outcome of the 2026 Holyrood elections, here are some reflections from me, the Reform UK candidate for the Cowdenbeath Constituency in Fife.

I live in Cowdenbeath – I have done for about 25 years. It’s my home and I care about the place and its people. I was absolutely honoured and privileged to be asked to stand as Reform UK’s candidate in my home town.

We started our Holyrood campaign on 31st January 2026 with a very successful street stall on Cowdenbeath High Street. What an amazing day that was.

I was not formally announced as the candidate for Cowdenbeath Constituency until 19th March. yet in that little over three months, we put approximately 100,000 pieces of literature through doors, knocked on around 9,000 doors and ran street stalls and street canvassing operations.

We built a campaign team from scratch in just a few months – a team of committed and dedicated Reform UK supporters. They, and I, gave it their all day in and day out because we believed in the Reform UK mission; and we believed that change was absolutely necessary and vital to arrest the ever-accelerating decline in Scotland’s health, economy and prosperity. Nothing was any better after twenty years of SNP rule. In fact things were worse – much worse.

My own motivation for being involved with Reform UK was primarily concern for our younger generations. I have children and grandchildren, and I genuinely felt that the
outlook for them in Scotland was so bleak – housing, health, cost of living, taxation, education, job opportunities, net zero madness and energy costs, alongside the challenges of illegal and uncontrolled immigration which was starting to touch every population centre in Scotland.

it was time to try something new and exciting that offered the prospect of radical change

These were all things that concerned me. It was time for change. It has to be time for change. Surely we are at that tipping point at which the hard-working people of Scotland will make the bold and brave move away from the old-guard political parties that have caused so much harm to our nation and failed their families and communities. Surely it was time to try something new and exciting that offered the prospect of radical change.

But although Reform UK’s rise in prominence and support over the last eighteen months has been phenomenal, it seems we are not quite at that tipping point yet – the point at which the population of Scotland feel they have totally exhausted their support for the old political parties. But that moment will inevitably come. I sensed that time and again throughout the campaign, and I spoke to thousands of voters during that time.

In Cowdenbeath Constituency, our data suggested that this was a constituency in which Reform UK could do well. Many areas of the constituency are suffering from the pain of successive SNP failures and the chaos emanating from the Starmer-led Labour regime in Westminster.

Interestingly, more than thirty per cent of those we spoke to on the doors stated they felt compelled to vote but were genuinely undecided about who to vote for, even at a late stage. Many voters felt scunnered by politics and politicians – let down, even betrayed, by the political class through broken promises, false hope and declining living standards. Many felt politically homeless.

Most of those thirty per cent had always previously known who they were going to vote for. Voting habits had long been fixed for many people. But now so many were pausing for thought and weighing up other options. I intuitively felt that Reform UK’s. tipping point was tied to those undecided voters.

an “in it to win it” mentality is the only way to conduct an effective political campaign

With the many openly declared Reform UK supporters in the constituency, added to the many undecided voters who might take a leap of faith and vote Reform UK, I thought electoral success in Cowdenbeath was eminently achievable.

Yes, I am an eternal optimist – I always have been. My team and I approached this campaign with an “in it to win it” mentality. In my view, it’s the only way to conduct an effective political campaign.

So, of course, when the count came on 8th May, we were bitterly disappointed to come third behind the SNP and Labour with 4,708 votes and 17.4 per cent of the vote share.

We expected a higher vote share. We expected many of the undecided voters to come our way. The two previous by election results in Fife in the months before the Holyrood election gave Reform UK a vote share of 26 to 29 per cent. We expected similar results in Cowdenbeath.

Turnout was also notably low at 47.4 per cent, reflecting general voter apathy and discontent.

That said, this was our first electoral foray in Cowdenbeath, and the 17.4 per cent share came from nothing. That vote share clearly contributed to the 4 per cent fall for the SNP, 7.4 per cent fall for Labour and 5.8 per cent fall for the Conservatives. This is real progress.

And of course, we take heart that the near 5,000 votes earned in Cowdenbeath contributed to the Mid Scotland and Fife regional vote tally, helping to send two Reform UK regional MSPs to Holyrood (alongside another fifteen of my candidate colleagues). That is no small achievement when, just twelve months ago, many commentators claimed Reform UK would never gain a foothold in Scotland. They were wrong – and this is only the start.

I believe that tipping point is now closer than ever

As I mentioned earlier, it seems we have not quite reached that scunner-factor tipping point. Many of the undecided voters ultimately adopted a “better the devil you know” approach and fell back on old voting habits. But I am not sure they have much patience left, and I believe that tipping point is now closer than ever – unless the SNP and Labour suddenly pull a rabbit out of the hat, and there is certainly no sign of that happening anytime soon.

I am immensely proud of what we achieved in Cowdenbeath. I am also immensely proud and humbled by the support of the Cowdenbeath Constituency campaign team. They gave it everything and conducted themselves at all times with professionalism, discipline and commitment. They suffered abuse on the streets, on doorsteps and even at polling stations, but they were undeterred, and kept going. Hard-working Scottish patriots wanting to play their part in fixing a broken Scotland. We started off the campaign as strangers and ended it as friends and colleagues.

We were always up against it, competing against the well-oiled campaigning machines of the SNP and Labour. We are relatively new political upstarts, learning lessons as we go, building a team and building a movement. We are work in progress. But our team in Cowdenbeath is now battle-hardened and ready to go at a moment’s notice. We may have lost this battle in this constituency, but the political war in Scotland rages on – and we are starting to outmanoeuvre our rivals.

So we will keep going and demonstrate the resilience, determination and commitment that has got us this far. Watch this space – that tipping point will come soon. The inevitability of further SNP failure will see to that.