How Reform UK is emerging as the saviour of the Union

A YEAR OR SO AGO, the received wisdom of the established unionist parties was that the arrival of Reform UK on the Scottish political scene would only get in the way of their ability to save the United Kingdom from five more years of SNP rule. It could not have been more wrong.

A more entitled and disconnected view could hardly be conceived. Time and again, the Conservatives and Labour said Reform would ensure the SNP was re-elected. This was self-serving nonsense. The challenge both the highly unpopular Conservatives and Labour faced was that their voters would either stay at home or even (in Labour’s case) go to the SNP – so bad is the Labour UK Government.

The reality, as I argued in my Scotsman column at the time, was simple. The reason the SNP had remained in power since 2007 was not just that they appealed to the patriotic tendencies of Scots (which it should be acknowledged lie latent in the pro-union parties too), but that the SNP was the original disruptor party.

It provided a home for people of all political hues to exercise their rejection of the failures, betrayals and incompetence of Labour, Tory and Liberal Democrat leaders of the past. That’s why we had tartan Tories in Tory seats and SNP socialists in Labour seats.

Apart from some deft retail policy offerings by SNP leaders – such as free university tuition, dualling of the A9, the proposed abolition of Council Tax in 2007 that became too difficult, and a new Scottish energy company that never appeared – the reason the failure or poor delivery of these policies never damaged SNP election hopes was because unionist parties continued to disappoint at Westminster just as much, if not more so.

When it came to testing if such a plague of widespread mistrust and utter disappointment meant Scotland should secede from the United Kingdom, the Scottish electorate voted with a resounding 55%-45% No. Despite continual political upheaval and further political deceits, the Scottish electorate has channelled its disgust at politicians by voting for the SNP in varying degrees – but also chastising them when a new hope of political common sense might bring salvation for the UK, such as in 2017 when the Conservatives won thirteen seats and in 2024 when the SNP was routed by a significant Labour recovery.

Reform UK is the true disruptor party

No serious and consistent swing to the nationalists has appeared in polling nor in the real polls (SNP electoral wins often coming with falling vote share). By-elections such as Hamilton have even been won by Labour when the SNP was expected to make a gain.

What this tells me is that faith in the UK continues to remain strong, but it is being severely tested. This time, it is the disaster that is Sir Keir Starmer – who, currently, is the greatest threat to the United Kingdom’s unity.

Yes, greater than that of Swinney and greater than anything Boris ever was. Why? Because Starmer appears to despise his own country – repeatedly placing his own interests of survival before his party, and his party’s interests before the country (most obviously in foreign affairs where he defers to the pro-Palestinian vote). He will only go when forced out and dragged away by the removal men, who might as well be wearing white flapping coats …

It is Reform UK, in challenging Starmer effectively – but also recognising that Labour and the Conservatives have, to all intents and purposes, acted in concert as a “uniparty” – that can offer an alternative. Thus Reform UK is the true disruptor party; it has replaced the Conservatives and is replacing Labour in providing the real opposition to the SNP.

The Conservatives and Labour both deserve to lose support to Reform UK because they have been poor opponents to the SNP – only scaremongering about referendums, but not doing the hard graft of challenging the SNP in Holyrood at a philosophical or practical level. Reform can be, and must be, different.

Those voting for Conservative and Labour rather than Reform are more likely to be preventing Reform from beating the SNP than helping their preferred party achieve an SNP loss. Only in a minority of constituencies are Reform not second.

It is Starmer who has completely undermined Labour in Scotland, and it is Starmer who is making Westminster rule chaotic and embarrassing.

If Reform can push Labour into third place, then its supporters will be helping end Starmer’s tenure in Downing Street. That would be good for the United Kingdom – and not the threat to the Union that Labour and the Tories argue.