Reform’s guiding principles: Sound finances, economic growth and the constitution

GERS FIGURES CONFIRM a stark reality. Scotland raises £87.3bn in tax, yet spends £117.5bn. That leaves a £30bn deficit – around twelve per cent of GDP.

Today, that gap is filled by the UK Treasury, backed by Sterling. It is a safety net. But it is also four times higher than the EU’s three per cent deficit threshold. Which makes John Swinney’s plan to leave the UK and join the EU look, at best, implausible.

The First Minister is being disingenuous. He promises independence while quietly ignoring the scale of the fiscal challenge. If he were serious, the last 19 years would have been spent reducing that deficit – not entrenching it.

Put simply, Scotland earns roughly £750 per week and spends £1,000.

No household or business could operate like this. Nor would international markets tolerate it. Outside the UK, borrowing costs would rise sharply. Without a credible currency, investors would demand severe austerity.

Should we not aim to live within our means?

For now, Scotland is shielded. Borrowing is done through the UK Treasury, with access to low-cost finance built on the credibility of Sterling over centuries.

But this raises a basic question of principle. Should we not aim to live within our means? Should we not bring the deficit down to a level that reflects economic responsibility?

ECONOMIC GROWTH

There are only two ways to close the gap: cut spending or grow revenues.

Cutting spending may be arithmetically simple, but socially damaging – particularly for the most vulnerable. That is why Reform’s focus is clear: grow the £87.3bn we already generate.

The route to growth is straightforward. Incentivise work. Reward effort. Unlock Scotland’s own potential.

At present, the balance has tipped too far – from work to welfare. Reform UK will reset that balance and build an economy that rewards contribution and creates broad prosperity.

We will begin by aligning Scottish income tax with the three bands used across the rest of the UK. Then we will go further – cutting each band by 1p, with a medium-term ambition of 3p within five years. Alignment will cost £1.2bn. Each additional 1p cut costs around £850m. In total, the initial package is £2bn – just three per cent of the Holyrood budget.

That is affordable. It can be funded through reprioritisation: £1bn currently directed to ideological net zero projects, and £6.5bn tied up in an overextended quango state.

Crucially, tax reduction is not a cost – it is an investment.

Every additional one per cent of economic growth delivers around £8bn in cumulative tax revenue over a decade. On that basis, the upfront cost is repaid multiple times over.

THE CONSTITUTION

Scottish politics has been dominated for too long by a single question: independence.

The result has been drift. Public services have been neglected while political energy is consumed by constitutional debate.

The public mood is clear. There is little appetite for another referendum in the near term.

Even within the independence movement, doubts are growing. Some recognise Scotland has not been prepared for separation. Others question the logic of exchanging one union for another within the EU.
There is also increasing frustration at misplaced priorities – where ideological agendas have too often taken precedence over the protection of communities and the interests of women and girls.

This creates an opportunity.

Rational unionists and realistic nationalists can find common ground. They can unite around a shared goal: making Scotland the most successful country in the world.

That will not happen overnight. It will take time – at least a decade of sustained reform.

But with economic growth unlocked, Scotland can generate the resources needed to transform health, education, housing and infrastructure.

Which is why Reform UK says: enough. Enough distraction. Enough division.

It is time to focus on delivery – not another referendum.

This is a section from Reform UK’s Manifesto for Scotland. We will be publishing edited extracts over the coming days.