The conference season is over, but will it make any difference?

IT HAS BEEN an eventful party political conference season, to say the least.

The Greens have revealed themselves as the jackboot tendency – now watch to see how many voters who have been tempted by them over the last eighteen months drift back to the Labour Party. Such a shift in the polls is worth looking out for. It could give the appearance that the ‘Burnham bounce’ is being sustained or even gathering momentum. The Holborn and St Pancras by-election result suggests a decline in Green support may already be underway – although low turnout can distort the numbers.

The Liberal Democrats revealed growing unhappiness with their leader. Let’s see where that leads. (Indeed, not long after posting this commentary the party’s Treasury spokesman resigned in an attempt to have Davey removed.) Ed Davey may not be leading the Liberal Democrats into the general election as he expects!

Reform UK were up next and confirmed, through the sheer size and dynamism of its conference, that it has not just come a long way but is professionalising and becoming much more serious about policy – and seeking to convince voters they are serious.

The 100-day programme and the willingness to pledge to resign if it fails to deliver was not just about Reform being accountable – it is also to remind the electorate how the Conservatives broke the trust voters put in them and even now remain unwilling to admit their responsibility, thereby avoiding accountability. I expect the theme that the Tories cannot be trusted to underpin everything Reform does.

Of course everyone opposed to Reform ganged up on any impropriety – real or alleged did not matter – but no party is without its skeletons, and it remains to be seen whether such allegations have cut through with floating voters. They certainly seem to make little difference to adherents of Reform, who expect such mudslinging to be part of the price of opposing the establishment.

This kite-flying points even more strongly to a May general election, which Nigel Farage has been warning about for the last two years

Then it was Labour’s turn, and it was all about the Prime Minister. Andy Burnham played to his strengths in communications – showing, through his penchant for creating good vibes, that he was not the robotic, nasal Sir Keir Starmer. Yet he flattered to deceive. He said little, if anything, about what he is going to do until there is a general election – but offered up what he was considering should be in his manifesto for that seminal event.

A huge expansion of the NHS to include social care, the possibility of proportional representation for Westminster elections, extensive nationalisation – oh, and the possibility of the UK seeking to become an EU member again. The latter will make achieving the other ideas all the harder – Brexit having been the most divisive issue of the last decade.

This kite-flying points even more strongly to a May general election, which Nigel Farage has been warning about for the last two years. True, Burnham has ruled out an early election, but we have now seen how he can go back on his word when it suits him.

There’s a great deal going to come out of Burnham’s policy potpourri – not least the fact that Andrew Burnham lied to the voters of Makerfield about parking attempts to join the EU.

Then, finally, as tradition dictates, it was the Conservatives’ turn. What was notable was the attempt to provide some core belief to the party’s purpose, through the publication of  The Right Way. It may yet prove important, because there has been a lack of such grounding since 2010, if not since 2006, when David Cameron became leader.

One might therefore have expected Kemi Badenoch’s speech to focus on that; but it didn’t. Instead, she spent much of her time seeking to maul Reform, not least those Conservatives who had joined it. Bizarrely, this included a personal fond farewell to the late Jeffrey Archer – who, let us remember, was a convicted criminal – while beating up on Reform politicians by implying their criminality. It was clumsy and aggressive and will only embolden those who became disenchanted with the Conservatives to stay with Reform.

It is not the first time Badenoch has shown a lack of judgement and self-awareness. Such episodes could yet be her undoing, but until next May she’s the Conservatives’ best hope, so nothing is likely to change until then.

The conference season is over – but will it make any difference?  Watch those spaces …

Photo of Jeffrey Archer by Bjørn Erik Pedersen – Own work, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=21386752