Nigel Farage won convincingly in Clacton – his opponents should suck it up and stop playing games

Part one of a review of the Clacton by-election.

NIGEL FARAGE HAS WON the Clacton by-election that he intentionally caused to happen. In the end he has done so, convincingly, but it should be remembered it did not always look that way, as his detractors talked up the possibility of every doubter and opponent rallying round a joke candidate who might defeat him – and the unrivalled joy they would take if Farage’s gamble backfired.

It was a high-risk strategy, maybe not so much because of the prospect of defeat, but because of the risk of significant embarrassment that could hobble him for the remainder of the parliamentary term right up to a general election.

Then constituency polling began to come in and the evidence suggested it would be a win for Farage, with only the margin left to be settled. The risk of embarrassment remained real.

There was still the hope among many that the turnout would be so low as to make any result meaningless – but even that became unjustified wishful thinking as the Clacton electorate turned out in respectable numbers, higher than in some by-elections since the 2024 general election.

Let us look then at the actual result.

Nigel Farage won, increasing his actual votes by nearly five per cent – from 21,225 to 22,239 – and increasing his vote share by 35.9 per cent – from 46.2 per cent to 62.8 per cent despite the turnout falling by nearly a quarter (24.1 per cent) – from 58.4 per cent in the general election to 44.37 per cent.

Despite that fall in turnout, Farage’s majority increased by 52 per cent from 8,405 to 12,784.

In regard to post 2024 by-election turnouts, here they are in ascending order, with by-election turnout shown against general election turnout:

Arbroath & Broughty Ferry (31.4% / 57.9%), Aberdeen South (38.0% / 59.9%), Clacton (44.3% / 58.7%), Runcorn & Helsby (46.2% / 58.7%), Gorton & Denton (47.6% / 48.0%), and Makerfield (58.8% / 52.5%).

So, with no other mainstream parties other than Reform turning up to stand, Clacton was fourth out of six by-elections.

No matter how Nigel Farage’s opponents look at it, the result is a ringing endorsement of his decision to force a by-election to challenge the constant haranguing of him through the parliamentary complaints process and the harassment of his family, rather than his detractors arguing against his analysis of the problems Britain faces and the remedies he proposes. He took on the establishment and he won, and won well.

In short, he increased his support both as a share and in the actual number of votes cast, on a smaller but still highly respectable turnout.

The suggestion that Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters would lend their votes to the leading joke candidate, Count Binface, in an effort to defeat him or at least embarrass him was in the main treated with contempt. Yes, Binface polled 9,455 votes, a 23.8 per cent share that easily saved his deposit, but to give it some perspective, it was fewer than the tally achieved by any Reform candidate in the other three English by-elections held since 2024, both in votes and vote share. (The Scottish by-elections are not like for like as they include the SNP candidate).

Let there be no doubt: had Nigel Farage’s actual vote, vote share or constituency majority decreased by a scintilla of a percentage point, his opponents would have clambered all over such an outcome and declared victory and humiliation for him.

Farage was right to make this body-swerve

None – not one – of those things happened. They therefore had to find some distraction, something to deflect attention towards, and they – and a willing media – focussed on Farage’s polite but firm refusal to place himself alongside 33 joke candidates who were looking for their moment in the sun.

He denied the media and his opponents the photograph they all wanted: Farage – whom the establishment wishes really were a joke candidate – standing next to a man who would rather wear a bin than show his face, together with a line formed by a rag, tag and bobtail group of 32 other ridiculous losers who all lost their deposits.

Farage was right to make this body-swerve. While it gave the media and his opponents the deflection that they craved, it was better than playing their game of ridiculing the Clacton voters’ convincing democratic endorsement and, worst of all, providing a photo for posterity. You can bet such a photo would have appeared at every opportunity for the next three years and beyond. Now it can only be an AI-generated fake in their imagination.

Nigel Farage won, and he won with not just an increased majority but an increased number of votes, despite the lower turnout. His opponents cannot deflect from those truths. Suck it up, stop playing facile games and instead answer his analysis and policies. If you can.